Every week that passes gives us a clear example that Maduro will do nothing to solve our problems. Last week he showed his incapacity coupled to his unwillingness and his "I do not give a damn about your security problem" by blaming crime and violence issued from 15 years of erroneous policies from chavismo to the governments before Chavez. That he blithely went there is enough to prove my case. I would stand down as the witness, but yesterday Maduro also proved that in economical matters he will do nothing, even if the house is on fire.
There is no need to elaborate on the state of the union ridiculous masquerade of yesterday. Besides I did not bother following it directly, live tweeting was enough. There is no need to elaborate on the "measures"announced which yielded as lone interesting result that 1) nothing will change for the time being and 2) the military keep amassing power.
To make you understand how grave is the indecisiveness of Maduro in doing what needs to get done, be it a communist outright coup or a neo-liberalism burst, let me tell you about the worries at work today.
I have several tons of varied stuff bought last year that customers are requesting and that I cannot sell or process. Why? Because after suffering a retroactive devaluation last year that wiped our earnings and then some more we are again owed by the regime hundred of thousand of dollars that we do not know whether this one will pay at 6.3 or 11.3 or any other number significantly above 6.3. Thus our decision is between serving our customers and risking bankruptcy, or holding what is left of our stock and risk losing our customer and bankruptcy anyway. Just a few weeks later than selling.
Fortunately our customers value our stuff, understand and suffer themselves the situation in full and do not want us to go belly up just as we do not want them to go belly up either. So we are trying to figure out schemes such as shipping without a bill to be emitted at a later date, except that we could be victim of a sudden audit by the regime that knows this will happen and can use it as a way to put fines, extort us and what not. Details on how do not matter, but trust me on that one, those are the options.
Now, tell me, how are we to produce when we cannot plan our costs? We are not talking here a small adjustment, say, 6.3 to 7.3, we are talking a 40% or larger "adjustment". And this only about the devaluation but there is also the simmering issue of limiting what we can earn on a product regardless of its cost or turnover, of new taxes looming, of gas becoming again a cost once its price becomes more realistic, etc. Maduro's answer for these issues is all the same "we are studying, it will be a transition, we are evaluation, we will do it, we will etc." But he is not doing and except outright repression and robbery by forcing you to sell at unrealistic prices, nothing else is happening.
Why?
Two reasons. Maduro has not enough cash, no matter what some say that there is enough cash to muddle for a year. I do think that the lack of cash is a true issue which extent we do not know as the debt and the corruption hide the real numbers, while it is clear that there is no possibility for increased revenue for the next year: how can you raise taxes if people are not going to be able to pay them? The other reasons is linked to this one: to keep all his constituencies happy there is not enough cash. Maduro is paralyzed because he does not know which part of his "coalition" he can toss overboard. If the military seem to be gaining the upper hand it is because they are the coalition part that you cannot keep saying NO all the time.
I suspect that Maduro is waiting for something to break to finally take true responsibility and make decisions. Except it may be too late for the economy when we are all bankrupt, including state economy.
